Silicon carbide has a bright futur

Since Tesla announced that its flagship Model 3 will be equipped with STMicroelectronics' silicon carbide power devices, silicon carbide has become famous overnight and has become the target of major companies. At present, silicon carbide has undoubtedly become the standard configuration of new energy vehicles. But just recently, at Tesla's first "Investor Day" event, there was a big news that Tesla's next-generation platform will reduce the use of silicon carbide by 75%, which caused a sensation in the industry and extensive discussions .

Reduce the amount of silicon carbide and reduce manufacturing costs

The reason why Tesla will "abandon" silicon carbide is, at its root, the problem lies in the cost. At the "Investor Day" event, Tesla officials said that the cost of Model 3 in 2022 has been reduced by 30%, but the production cost of the next generation of cars will be reduced by more than 50%. And reducing the cost of the drive unit is one of the key links. It is understood that Tesla can reduce the cost of the drive unit by about 1,000 US dollars through technical optimization of silicon carbide devices, batteries and other links, and said that even if the amount of silicon carbide devices is reduced by 75%, it will still not reduce the cost of the car. performance and efficiency.

At first glance, Tesla seems to want to abandon silicon carbide technology. In fact, it is not the case. Tesla just thinks that the cost of silicon carbide transistors is too high and the wafer size is difficult to expand. At the same time, it is also worried about the production capacity supply of silicon carbide devices. Therefore, Tesla will continue to improve its own silicon carbide R&D technology and optimize the design of power modules, thereby reducing the amount of silicon carbide devices used.

Arnost Kopta, CTO of SwissSEM Technologies AG, also said that it is an indisputable fact that the overall performance of silicon carbide MOSFETs (metal-oxide semiconductor field effect transistors) is superior to silicon IGBTs (insulated gate bipolar transistors). However, compared to IGBTs, the total cost of SiC is currently still higher due to factors such as raw materials, processing and yield. Some of the advantages of silicon carbide are also difficult to fully exploit. So the two main devices, SiC MOSFETs and Si IGBTs, will coexist for a long time, and the market share will be divided according to the total cost of the system, and the market will become more mature over time.

Li Long, deputy general manager of CCID Consulting's New Material Industry Research Center, said that in Tesla's development strategy, reducing the cost of a single vehicle is undoubtedly the most direct and effective means to achieve the goal of expanding the market share of electric vehicles, and Tesla It hopes to reduce the production cost of the next generation of electric vehicles by another 50%. Tesla is the world's first car company to use silicon carbide devices in electric vehicles, using STMicroelectronics' silicon carbide MOSFET devices. Taking Model 3 as an example, a Model 3 uses 48 silicon carbide devices, and the price of silicon carbide devices is 3 to 5 times that of silicon devices. Reducing the amount of silicon carbide can reduce the manufacturing cost.

In 2022, Tesla's global delivery volume will be about 1.31 million vehicles, an increase of about 40.9%, and it will only take 7 months for Tesla to deliver the fourth batch of 1 million vehicles. Tesla hopes to reach an annual output of 20 million vehicles in 2030, which means that in the next few years, Tesla's annual production growth rate of electric vehicles needs to remain at about 40%. Based on the consumption of one 6-inch silicon carbide wafer per 3 vehicles, Tesla will consume about 436,000 wafers in 2022, and the current global production of 6-inch silicon carbide is about 600,000. The demand for silicon carbide in other application fields outside the field, the supply pressure of silicon carbide is relatively high.

Can gallium nitride(GaN) become a new trend?

Compared with silicon carbide being "backstabbed" by Tesla, gallium nitride(GaN), which is also a representative of wide bandgap semiconductors, has been favored by major automotive chip manufacturers. On the same day that Tesla held its investor day, Infineon, a leading automotive chip company, announced that it had acquired GaN Systems, a manufacturer of gallium nitride(GaN) power semiconductors, for US$830 million, aiming to strengthen its GaN product portfolio and further consolidate the British market. Feiling's position in the field of power systems. At present, the two parties have signed the final agreement.

It is understood that GaN Systems is a manufacturer focused on gallium nitride(GaN) power semiconductors, which can meet the product needs of consumer electronics, data center servers, power supplies, renewable energy systems, industrial motors, and automotive electronics. Jochen Hanebeck, CEO of Infineon, said: "Breakthroughs in gallium nitride(GaN) technology are providing new solutions for energy saving and carbon reduction. Gallium nitride technology is used in mobile charging piles, data center power supplies, residential solar inverters and electric vehicles. Applications such as chargers are booming and the market is growing rapidly. The acquisition of GaN Systems will significantly accelerate Infineon's GaN technology roadmap."

With the development of technologies such as AI, 5G communications, and new energy vehicles, GaN power devices are superior to traditional silicon devices in terms of speed, efficiency, and high temperature resistance, and have broad application prospects in the field of power systems. Market research organization Yole predicts that by 2027, the gallium nitride(GaN) power device market is expected to reach $2 billion, compared with only $126 million in 2021. Electric vehicles will become the next wave of growth for GaN power devices. It is estimated that by 2027, the market size of GaN power devices in electric vehicles will exceed US$227 million, and the compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2027 will reach 99%. .

"Some application scenarios in new energy vehicles require a voltage between 650 and 1000V. Therefore, the field of new energy vehicles has also become the main field of competition between silicon carbide and gallium nitride(GaN), such as power drive, on-board charging OBC and on-board DCDC. " said Lei Guangyin, a researcher at the Institute of Engineering and Applied Technology, Fudan University

From the perspective of the commercial field, the potential markets of silicon carbide and gallium nitride(GaN) are mainly concentrated in new energy vehicle power electronic devices. It is estimated that by 2025, the global market size of silicon carbide and gallium nitride(GaN) power electronic devices used in new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 2.5 billion US dollars. Li Long said that the market advantages of silicon carbide in the field of new energy vehicles are mainly reflected in the improvement of mileage and the reduction of the volume of power conversion systems, etc., while the application of gallium nitride in the field of new energy vehicles is expected to gradually begin to roll out around 2025. The main market advantages are reflected in significantly shortening the charging time of new energy vehicles and reducing the volume of power conversion systems.

Although the market application of silicon carbide in the field of new energy vehicles is better, as the medium and low voltage gallium nitride(GaN) technology continues to mature and its competitiveness continues to improve, it will greatly accelerate the ecological development of gallium nitride(GaN) in the field of new energy vehicles. It is understood that about 68% of global power devices are used in the range of 0~900V, which is also the main application field of gallium nitride(GaN). According to estimates, the potential market size of global gallium nitride power devices is about 30 billion US dollars. In the future, medium and low voltage GaN power devices are expected to be more active in consumer electronics, automobiles, industry and other fields.

Although gallium nitride(GaN) has indeed made breakthroughs in the automotive market recently, some suppliers have begun to cooperate with car companies to verify products. However, Gong Ruijiao, an analyst at TrendForce, pointed out that on the whole, due to reliability and other reasons, the current GaN automotive market is still immature, and the on-board charger (OBC) will be used as a breakthrough point in the short term. There will be small-volume infiltration, which will compete with silicon carbide in 400V systems, but in 800V systems, gallium nitride(GaN) can't do it yet.

Silicon carbide will still be the mainstream in the automotive field

Although Tesla's reduction of silicon carbide has caused a lot of noise, the cooperation between other companies on silicon carbide is still frequent. In terms of automobiles, ON Semiconductor signed a strategic agreement with Volkswagen to provide Volkswagen with Elite silicon carbide 1200V main inverter power modules. In addition, this series of products was also selected by Kia Motors for EV6 GT models, and reached a long-term agreement with BMW Supply agreement to provide silicon carbide chips; Wolfspeed and Mercedes-Benz deepened cooperation to provide silicon carbide power devices required for its electric vehicles. In terms of renewable energy, ON Semiconductor has also cooperated with Ampt to provide silicon carbide MOSFETs required for solar energy and energy storage system optimizers; Infineon's Cool silicon carbide has been introduced into Delta's bidirectional inverters for solar energy The three-in-one system of power generation, energy storage, and electric vehicle charging also helps to improve the efficiency of Bloom Energy's fuel cell and electrolysis systems. Infineon continues to expand its cooperation with silicon carbide suppliers and has signed a new multi-year supply and cooperation agreement with Japanese material supplier Resonac.

Several leading silicon carbide manufacturers are also announcing new expansion plans. For example, Wolfspeed plans to cooperate with auto parts supplier ZF to invest $3 billion in the construction of a semiconductor plant in Saarland, Germany; Resonac announced that it will Years ago, the production capacity of silicon carbide epitaxial wafers for power semiconductors was increased to 50,000 pieces per month, five times the current level, and investment in the development of next-generation 8-inch silicon carbide wafer technology began.

ON Semiconductor President Hassane EI-Khoury said that ON Semiconductor's silicon carbide business is growing faster than other divisions of the company. He said: "ON Semiconductor's biggest growth in 2023 will come from the growth of silicon carbide in the electric vehicle market, and it is expected to achieve $4 billion in silicon carbide revenue in the next three years."

TrendForce predicts in the latest research report that with the increasing number of cooperation projects between ON Semiconductor and Infineon and automotive and energy companies, the top two applications of silicon carbide power devices are new energy vehicles and renewable energy. In 2022, it will reach US$1.09 billion and US$210 million, accounting for about 67.4% and 13.1% of the overall market output value of silicon carbide power devices. By 2023, the overall market value of silicon carbide power devices will reach 2.28 billion US dollars, an annual growth rate of 41.4%.

TrendForce predicts that by 2026, the market value of silicon carbide power devices is expected to reach US$5.33 billion. Mainstream applications still rely heavily on electric vehicles and renewable energy. The output value of electric vehicles can reach US$3.98 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of about 38%; renewable energy can reach US$410 million, with a compound annual growth rate of about 19%.

Recently, mainly due to the news that Tesla has significantly reduced the use of silicon carbide, the market has shown some pessimism. But it feels like the market is overreacting. Silicon carbide has superior electrical properties that cannot be matched by traditional silicon materials. The replacement of silicon-based IGBTs by silicon carbide is an irreversible trend, especially under the 800V charging architecture, silicon-based IGBTs have reached the limit of performance, and it is difficult to meet the technical requirements of the main drive inverter. From the perspective of downstream applications, silicon carbide components are the core components that electric vehicle manufacturers must consider in the future. In addition, the introduction of photovoltaic energy storage scenarios is also accelerating. Therefore, the silicon carbide market will remain in short supply in recent years, and the industry's popularity will not decrease.

Industry insiders also believe that the application of silicon carbide in the electric vehicle market will not be affected. Leading companies in the international silicon carbide field, such as ON Semiconductor and Infineon, have listed electric vehicles as their strategic direction, which shows that compared with silicon-based devices, silicon carbide devices are still the best solution for electric vehicle electric drive solutions. Silicon carbide devices can improve the cruising range of electric vehicles, shorten charging time, and maintain better stability in high-temperature and high-frequency environments, thereby improving the overall performance of electric vehicles. Therefore, in the long run, if the cost of silicon carbide can be further reduced in the future, and the product yield and production capacity supply can be improved, the performance advantages of silicon carbide compared with silicon-based devices will make silicon carbide devices become mainstream products in the automotive field.

In addition, major companies are also constantly improving in the research and development of silicon carbide technology. Pan Dawei, senior vice president of Infineon Technologies, president of Greater China, and head of the Power and Sensing Systems Division of Infineon Technologies Greater China, said that since 2018 Since the acquisition of SILTECTRA, a start-up company with silicon carbide cold cutting technology, through the application and optimization of technology, material loss and cost reduction have been achieved. In the future, four times as many wafers will be produced from the same silicon carbide ingot.